Almost every day, like a daily ritual, most contributors to this post are up in arms, going gung-ho for the ‘Indo-U.S Nuclear deal’ in its current form, so much so that they beat the Left parties in their own game of slogan shouting. The new mantra: ‘Nuclear! Nuclear! Nuclear! : Now! Now! Now!,’ seems to have taken precedence than any other considerations, including even to let the parliament run a debate on it.
These contributors seem to conveniently overlook or fail to comprehend that the deal is about nuclear energy (and by default Nukes) and not about dealing in lollypops or jellybeans, besides the bindings of the Hyde Act incorporated in the deal.
In this context, for the benefit of the readers, the recent essay by retired Col. Anil A. Athale, Fellow at the Centre for Armed Forces Historical Research titled, ‘N-deal serves the US better’ explains the background of the deal and I reproduce excerpts from it in the following paragraphs below, that may try to remove the action of the daily doses of ‘convincing pills’ fed by some contributors through this post that the US offered Nuclear deal is the best thing that could ever happen to India to some even comparing it to God sent opportunities.
Much of the public debate on the Indo-US nuclear debate seems to be missing the woods for the trees. The deal is not about the nuclear issue at all; it is only a means to an end. Essentially the tough negotiations had a single point agenda — India’s place in the emerging world order.
Apparently, given the likely geopolitical situation for the next 50 years, the US is actually interested in India’s military build up. India’s nuclear weapons programme was apparently not the sticking point holding up the agreement. For, it is today in the interest of the US itself that India develops nuclear capability comparable to that of China.
If one is to believe the media reports, then the problem area between the US and India was the reprocessing of spent fuel, fast breeder reactors and the thorium cycle. All these are essential if India is to attain ‘energy security’ and free itself from oil dependence. Interestingly, while the Arabs produce the oil, the oil market (and profits) are controlled by the ‘Seven Sisters’ or the American-controlled oil companies. It appears that as an insurance against future change in Indian policies, the US is loath to permit India to be energy independent. #MyPageBreak#
On one hand, the US caution is justified given their experience with China (whom they helped become technologically advanced). On the other, in foreseeable future, of at least next 50 years, Indian interests in the world would coincide with the Americans. In addition, there is the large and influential presence of the Indian Diaspora in America. Given this situation, it is indeed strange that America harbours suspicions about India.
Gven the lack of options on part of the US, it is very unlikely that the US can really browbeat India on the energy independence issue. India is no longer a country that is living from ‘ship to mouth’ (as in 1965) and hence American pressure is unlikely to work. Again quoting Schelling, (Arms and Influence, p. vii), keeping India away from nuclear weapons was a long-term goal of the US. In this it has failed.
Prof. Joseph S Nye, a long serving US Assistant Secretary of State, believes that a great power is one that does not have to alter its national interests to suit the situation but has the power to alter the situation so that it does not have to change. The US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has exposed the limitations of American power. The US has really no choice but to adjust its laws and policies to clinch the deal with India. The Non-Proliferation ‘Ayatollahs’ of US are living in a bygone world. The US is only using them as a pressure tactic.
For a change, the Sinophile Communists of India also played a ‘positive’ role by being ‘negative’ about the Indo-US deal. The hands of the Indian government are strengthened by their opposition. Similarly the anti-nuclear lobby (long promoted and paid for by the US, though now abandoned) is doing its bit by opposing the agreement with US. Such is the pathetic public image of these media-promoted experts that anything they oppose is instinctively supported by common Indians.